Wet Weather with a Chill Down Ahead

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Another chilly start to the day with temperatures a little below the freezing mark at most Central Alabama locations this morning. But look for a nice moderation today with lots of sun and afternoon highs climbing to around 60 – maybe even tipping into the lower 60s. Great Fall day for Central Alabama. Yes, I am in a great mood since my alma mater beat their arch rivals this year – 31 to 7 – breaking the 5 year streak of wins. And I am speaking of the Florida State Seminoles!

Monday is going to be somewhat of a transition day. Look for clouds to be on the weather scene along with the possibility of some patchy light rain. A warm front is expected to develop and move northward through Central Alabama. So even with the clouds, we are likely to see temperatures again around 60 degrees. But in the meantime, the big trough to our west is getting its act together and moving eastward. This will produce a strong storm system for the Central Plains with a significant cold front and some chilly air for us once again about mid-week.

The cold air invades Texas, though as I noted yesterday, the cold air does not seem to get quite as far south. That cold air will be arriving late Tuesday with a chilly morning for both Wednesday and Thursday. Rain will be likely for everyone Monday night and Tuesday. The rain should be moving through the state from west to east on Tuesday, so the rain should be clearing all of Central Alabama by early Wednesday morning. Don’t look for much temperature change on Tuesday with highs and lows expected to be in the 50s.

Wednesday morning we’ll be back down below freezing – as we will also on Thursday morning – and Wednesday could be one of those days with sunshine but the air temperature struggling to get out of the 40s with strong cold air advection.

As we end the week, the air will begin moderating so that by Saturday the afternoon highs will once again be approaching the 60-degree mark.

Rainfall is going to be plentiful and widespread. Rain amounts are likely to be in the 1 to 2 inch category with some heavier amounts in stronger storms. There is some risk of severe weather, too, however, the confidence is not especially high with model differences. However, the SPC has outlooked an area for slight risk from Monday into Tuesday to the southwest of us covering much of Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and Southwest Alabama. The development of the warm sector and the deep layer moisture will need to be watched to see how this system plays out and just how far north the warmth can expand. The upper trough is certainly strong, so the development of severe weather will depend on how other parameters come together. We need to keep in mind that it is November which is the heart of our secondary severe weather season. So for the moment a watchful eye is prudent.

Looking further afield, the GFS continues to paint a picture of progressive patterns with a wet system around the 7th and another around the 10th with a chill-ish pattern around the 13th.

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Mr. Spann will be back with your next Weather Xtreme Video by 7 am tomorrow morning. Thanks for staying tuned. I hope you have a great Sunday whatever your plans might be. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather