A Good Wet-Down

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BENEFICIAL RAIN: Our projected rain event is unfolding as expected this morning. Rain is widespread along and south of I-59 this morning, and should overspread the entire state during the next six hours. For North-Central Alabama, today will feature a steady, soaking rain with temperatures basically holding in the 50s all day. There is no surface based instability, so there won’t be any severe weather problems, although you might hear a little thunder in spots from embedded elevated storms that form. The rain continues tonight.

TOMORROW: A strong vorticity maximum will spin up a secondary low tomorrow, that should be a little north of us in Tennessee by midday. This is in a position to possibly bring some risk of strong to severe storms to Alabama, but with no instability, we believe any severe weather problems will be confined to the southeast counties of the state, and even there the risk is marginal. The rain and storms will diminish by midday as the low lifts northeast. We should also note it will be windy at times tomorrow as the pressure gradient tightens up in response to the low just north of here.

HOW MUCH RAIN? See the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the QPF chart from HPC shows a bullseye of 3.9 inches around Lake Logan Martin, with widespread amounts of 2 inches elsewhere across North-Central Alabama. The NAM is printing 2.10″ for Birmingham, while the GFS shows 2.39″. Just what the doctor ordered for a state where rain deficits are running in the 5 to 10 inch range.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: These days will be dry with a partly sunny sky… the high Wednesday will be in the mid 60s, but maximum temps will drop into the upper 50s Thursday thanks to a cold front passing through early in the day. The GFS hints at a few showers along this front north of here over Tennessee, but it looks like the air over Alabama is too dry for any significant rain.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Wonderful fall weather. Sunny pleasant days and clear cold nights. We should be in the 30s early Friday and Saturday morning, with some potential for a freeze for the colder spots. Afternoon highs will be in the 60s… just where we should be. Yet another great weekend for football.

THANKSGIVING WEEK: Watch the Weather Xtreme video for a detailed, day by day breakdown. For now it looks like we will have a chance of rain here Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by dry and cooler air Thanksgiving Day. Black Friday is looking cool and dry. Bitterly cold air over Canada the the northern U.S. won’t be allowed to drop south due to the upper air wind pattern in place. We caution you, of course, this is all out there in voodoo land, and things could change.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s episode at 8:30 p.m. CDT… the show will be posted to iTunes and the web around midnight.

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I am off to Gadsden this morning for a weather program at Coosa Christian School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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