Tomas Expected To Become Major Hurricane

WTNT31 KNHC 292036
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

…THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS…TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…11.1N 57.5W
ABOUT 200 MI…320 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 290 MI…470 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS…AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO…AND GRENADA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
DOMINICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BARBADOS…MARTINIQUE…ST. LUCIA…ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES…GRENADA…AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR…
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/HR…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL WINDWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND
TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES…ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE…A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING
WITHIN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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