Severe Weather Timing

On days like this I a huge volume of e-mail from people wanting to know when the severe weather will move into their home town or county. With hundreds of communities across our market area, there is no way can answer all those questions about individual towns. And, quite frankly, on a day like this the best we can is give a broad time frame since we will dealing with discrete cells ahead of the main band of storms.

Here is a general idea of the timing…

NOW THROUGH 1:00 P.M… The best chance of severe weather will be over the northwest third of the state, mainly northwest of a line from Millport to Jasper to Cullman to Huntsville. A tornado watch is in effect for this area, and any storm that forms here could produce hail and gusty winds, along with an isolated tornado.

1:00 P.M. THROUGH 6:00 P.M… Severe storms are possible over much of Alabama, with the exception of the far eastern counties. The storms will be scattered ahead of the main line, and there is no way to determine where they will form or when they will arrive. You just have to keep an eye on radar trends.

6:00 P.M. THROUGH MIDNIGHT: Severe storms are possible over the northern two-thirds of the state, and the main line will be moving through Northwest Alabama with potential for damaging winds. The scattered storms ahead of the line will continue to have some tornado potential, and a a few small spin-up tornadoes are possible within the line.

We should also note that pressure gradient winds, not involving storms, will be an issue as well, with winds gusting t0 40 mph at times, throughout the afternoon, with gusts over 50 mph on the ridges.

NEW CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK: We note that the new Day One Convective Outlook has a moderate risk of severe weather in place for North Alabama. Stay with the blog for frequent updates this afternoon…

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