Better Rain Chances Ahead

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THIS AFTERNOON: Yet another hot September day for Alabama… 2:00 temperatures include 90 at Gadsden, 91 at Birmingham and Anniston, and 93 in Tuscaloosa. Showers are very hard to find, although a few strong storms have formed over Mobile and Baldwin counties near the coast.

WET WEATHER RETURNING: Look for a general increase in the number of scattered showers and storms tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night as an upper low forms to the northwest of Alabama. Rain and storms should be widespread Sunday, with temperatures considerably cooler. The GFS is printing a high of only 82 degrees for Birmingham. Occasional showers and storms will continue into Sunday night and Monday morning. The GFS shows 1.11″ of rain for Birmingham during the next 84 hours, and every drop will be welcomed.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS continues to be a little more progressive with the upper trough, and is now suggesting the showers will end from west to east during the day Monday. There could be very little rain Monday near the Mississippi border, but those near the Georgia border could see rain much of the day. Looks like we won’t make it out of the 70s Monday, a refreshing change from the hot weather of late.

The rest of the week looks dry and pleasant. We will enjoy lows in the 50s, with the cooler pockets reaching the upper 40s early Wednesday and Thursday morning.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Lisa remains in the far eastern Atlantic, and is drifting to the north/northwest and is no threat to land. Tropical Storm Matthew is now on the coast of Central America, and is expected to move slowly to the northwest. The steering currents will collapse over the system, meaning the potential of life threatening flooding over places like Belize, Guatemala, and parts of Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula. If Matthew can survive the long stint over land, it should be pulled northeast toward South Florida in about a week… this could be problematic for places like Fort Myers, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Daytona Beach. From there most likely it continues to move to the northeast, well east of Alabama.

This track will pull down some very cool air into our state in about 8 to 10 days, with potential for highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. I don’t think anyone will have a problem with that.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games across Alabama tonight, there is just an outside risk of any one stadium getting wet due to the isolated nature of the afternoon showers and storms we expect. Temperatures will fall from the upper 80s at kickoff to near 80 by the final whistle.

Saturday Alabama will be in the NW corner of Arkansas at Fayetteville to play the Razorbacks (2:30 p.m. CDT kickoff). The weather will be near perfect with almost total sunshine, lower humidity and the highest temperature around 82. Auburn will be at home hosting the South Carolina Gamecocks (6:45 p.m. CDT kickoff); a passing shower or thunderstorm is possible during the game, with temperatures falling from 85 at kickoff into the upper 70s by the end of the game. UAB will be in Knoxville to play the Tennessee Volunteers tomorrow morning (11:20 a.m. CDT kickoff); a shower or storm is possible during the game with temperatures generally close to 80. Samford hosts Appalachian State tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. CDT, and just like at Auburn, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but the chance of any spot getting rain remains fairly low. Temperatures will be near 89 at kickoff and hang around the middle and upper 80s through the end of the game.

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Brian Peters will have the Weather Xtreme videos tomorrow and Sunday; my next one will arrive early Monday morning by 7:00 a.m. Enjoy the weekend!

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