Wet And Cooler By Sunday/Monday

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THIS AFTERNOON: Not much change in the overall weather across Alabama this afternoon. Hardly any showers are on radar, and temperatures are mostly in the low 90s. Readings at 3:00 include 91 at Gadsden and Gadsden, 92 at Birmingham, and 95 at Tuscaloosa.

TOMORROW: Not much change… a partly sunny sky with a high in the low 90s. A few showers or storms will likely fire up during the heat of the day, but they will remain widely spaced.

SATURDAY: We expect a general increase in the number of showers and storms as we begin the weekend thanks to an upper low developing northwest of the state, but the showers will remain scattered, and it won’t be a “rainy day”. The best chance of a shower or storm will come during the afternoon and evening hours, and the high will be close to 90 degrees.

WETTER AND COOLER: The big change comes Sunday and Monday, when periods of rain and a few thunderstorms are likely. We are projecting rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches on these two days (cumulative total), with a high in the mid 80s Sunday, and close to 80 Monday. A number of North Alabama communities won’t make it out of the 70s Monday due to the clouds and rain.

LONG RANGE/VOODOO LAND: Model madness makes for a challenging forecast. Watch the Weather Xtreme video, and you will see the 12Z GFS kicks the upper low/trough out quickly, with drier air entering Alabama Tuesday. The latter half of the week looks dry with pleasant temperatures as the tropical system passes east of us. If the 00Z runs confirm this, we will begin to adjust the forecast in that direction.

MATTHEW IS ON THE BOARD: The wave in the Caribbean is now Tropical Storm Matthew, and the system should be nearing the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua late tomorrow night and Saturday morning. Matthew will then move to the coast of Belize, most likely as a hurricane, on Sunday. At that point, a sharp turn to the right is expected, which will bring the system along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, with a potential entry into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico next week.

Model global models suggest this hurricane will be a big problem for the Florida peninsula… the 12Z GFS moves it to Key West, then up to Orlando, and to a point just east of Jacksonville in about 8 to 9 days. We stress it is way too early to determine the ultimate track, but confidence is growing that Matthew’s main impact will be east of Alabama. We stay on the dry side of the system, and there is a good chance the big circulation will pull down some very fresh, cool air into the state in the October 2-6 time frame. See the Weather Xtreme video for complete details.

NO BURNING: Due to the dry conditions all 67 Alabama counties are now under a fire alert. Get the details here.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games across Alabama both tonight and tomorrow night, there is just an outside risk of any one stadium getting wet due to the isolated nature of the afternoon showers and storms we expect. Temperatures will fall from the upper 80s at kickoff to near 80 by the final whistle.

Saturday, Alabama will travel to Arkansas to play the Razorbacks in Fayetteville (2:30 p.m. CDT kickoff). At this point the weather looks great with a good supply of sunshine, and temperatures falling from near 78 at kickoff to the low 70s by the fourth quarter. Auburn will be at home hosting the South Carolina Gamecocks (6:45 p.m. CDT kickoff); a passing shower or thunderstorm is possible during the game, with temperatures falling from 85 at kickoff into the upper 70s by the end of the game. UAB will be in Knoxville to play the Tennessee Volunteers Saturday morning (11:20 a.m. CDT kickoff); a shower or storm is possible during the game with temperatures generally in the 79 to 82 degree range. Samford hosts Appalachian State Saturday at 2:00 PM CDT, and just like at Auburn, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but the chance of any spot getting rain remains fairly low. Temperatures will be near 90 at kickoff and hang around the middle and upper 80s through the end of the game.

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I had a great time today down in Demopolis at the Senior Adult Center… saw many old friends. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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