Too Hot and Too Dry

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ENDLESS SUMMER: Scroll down for a look at the list of record highs today and tomorrow… I don’t think we break those records, but it will be close. And, like the long cold winter we experienced that didn’t feature too many record lows, it is the staying power of this heat that has made the summer rather remarkable. Birmingham has hit 90 degrees or higher 93 times this year, and we could approach 100 days of 90 degree heat before it is all over.

TODAY/TOMORROW: Highs will be in the 94 to 98 degree range with a good supply of sunshine. Like recent days, isolated storms could bubble up during the heat of the day, but they will be few and far between. Birmingham has measured only 0.05″ of rain so far this month (and this is the 20th of September!)… so it goes without saying we really need some wet weather. Parts of East and Southeast Alabama are now in a severe drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor… see it on the Weather Xtreme video.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: The upper high should weaken a bit with temperatures dropping down into the low 90s. Chance of afternoon showers or storms will remain very small as dry air stays in place.

THE WEEKEND: The 00Z GFS pushes a cold front through here Saturday, which if correct could bring some pretty decent heat relief for the weekend as highs drop into the 80s. But, there is very little moisture for the front to work with, so widespread rain doesn’t look especially likely at this point. The GFS is printing a high of 89 for Saturday, and 86 on Sunday.

LONG RANGE: Still looks like a pattern change late this month and early October, which could open the door for cooler weather, but also open the door for tropical mischief. The GFS has been advertising a hurricane in the Gulf or Atlantic that would threaten the Southeast U.S. for days. The 00Z run brings it up the East Coast of Florida, but other runs have moved it through the Gulf up in our direction. Needless to say, this is all voodoo, but I do think the idea of a tropical system in the Gulf is very realistic since that heat needs to be transferred, which is what hurricanes do. We will be watching closely.

TROPICS TODAY: Igor moved over Bermuda last night wrecking much havoc; it will weaken in coming days and become extra-tropical over the North Atlantic. Julia is dissipating over the Atlantic, and a new wave over the East Atlantic could become Tropical Storm Lisa in coming days. Models take this wave northwest, and it seems to be no threat to land.

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