East Coast Hurricane Threat Ahead

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AROUND HERE: The GFS sure looks dry through Friday. But, there were showers around here yesterday (rather isolated ones), and I think the same thing happens today and tomorrow thanks to the plume of high altitude tropical moisture coming from Henriette, and slightly higher dewpoints at the surface this morning. Otherwise, looks like another hot and hazy early September day with a high up in the low to mid 90s. Nothing like the weather 82 years ago today, with Centreville soared to 112 degrees; Alabama’s hottest temperature ever. That was at the beginning of a warm AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) phase, that would continue for 44 years, to 1969. Then, a cool phase was measured from 1970 to 1994. We are back in a warm AMO phase now, and summers are hotter. A natural thing, you know…

OUR WEEKEND: A surface front will approach from the north by Sunday and Monday, and moisture levels will be increasing, so we will mention a chance of scattered showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. Looks like highs will drop back into the mid to upper 80s over the weekend due to increased clouds.

Unfortunately, there is no upper air support for the front to blast through Alabama early next week, which means no serious shot of cool Canadian air. We will have to wait later in the month; the 00Z run of the GFS does show a deep eastern U.S. trough around September 20, which would indeed deliver some refreshingly cool air. But, as we all know, for now that is voodoo.

WATCHING FOR GABRIELLE: The system now known as invest AL99 should morph into Tropical Storm Gabrielle in coming days. This thing is east of Jacksonville, Florida, and north of the Bahamas now. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter will be in the area later today to give us additional information on the system. Many of the better dynamic models bring this one to the northwest, in the general direction of the coast of the Carolinas, with a potential landfall somewhere around Wilmington over the weekend. Of course, it is impossible to make a call on this thing until it gets its act together, but the Gulf Stream water is warm, and I have great concern this will be a hurricane by the time it approaches the U.S. coast. The ECMWF and the GFDL support this idea, but the HWRF keeps Gabrielle as a tropical storm.

An approaching upper trough will force Gabrielle to the northeast by Sunday and Monday, with a threat of wind and rain for the mid-Atlantic coast region before turning out to sea.

IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC: Henriette is still a hurricane this morning in the Gulf of California; it will move into Mexico today, and all of that moisture is headed up into the Southwest U.S.

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