Showers Today Then Drier

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A weak cold front was lurking to our northwest this morning. That front should move through Central Alabama this evening with showers and some thunderstorms preceding it. I think we might see a strong storm or two, but for the most part storms should be below severe limits. Rainfall with these storms will be in the one half to one inch category.

With the upper ridge flattening due to the continued onslaught of strong troughs moving across the northern tier of the US, the front should move through the Birmingham area by midnight and settle into South Alabama by late morning Sunday. This timing should be ending the rain chance in Central Alabama by midnight or so.

This front is not particularly strong and will not represent a big air mass change. But we should see dew points dropping into the lower 60s with even the potential for them to get into the upper 50s. This means we should see lows by Monday morning in the lower 60s. But the air mass is not going to change in a big way so look for highs to reach the upper 80s on Sunday but once again get into the lower 90s by Tuesday and for the rest of the week.

We should stay dry through the end of the week when moisture slowly returns. Right now I’m thinking that we’ll see the possibility of isolated showers on Friday and Saturday. The ridge remains flattened and the Southeast US remains under a slight northwest flow pattern. This should keep dew points in the 60s so morning lows will stay in the 60s.

Tropics are not quite as active as you might expect for early September. Two areas under the watchful eyes of the National Hurricane Center – Igor and a disturbed area in the eastern Caribbean. Igor is having trouble getting his act together, but the shear is reducing and the forecast calls for strengthening of the storm into a major hurricane by Tuesday. Fortunately it appears that Igor will remain at sea and not impact any land areas. But since Igor has been so hard to forecast so far, we’ll have to watch this one.

The disturbed area in the eastern Caribbean is now well organized yet but it is moving into an area favorable for additional development. The model guidance suggests a west-northwest motion for the foreseeable future, so this could become our next named storm. Plus the model guidance suggests a high potential for this to become a Gulf storm, so there will be lots of eyes on this one.

Not much change in voodoo country as there is still no suggestion of our first really major cold front to give us a real air mass change.

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Keep the umbrella handy if you have plans for the afternoon and evening since those are the most likely hours for showers in Central Alabama. I hope that you have a wonderful Saturday and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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