Afternoons Remain Hot

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HIGHS IN THE 90s: The fact that the weather is hot is not all that unusual for early September, I often point out the first good Polar front of the fall season usually doesn’t arrive until the end of the month. The cool snap this past weekend was a nice little preview of fall, but we have plenty of hot days to go. And, sure enough, we should be in the 91 to 95 degree range each afternoon for the rest of the week.

TO THE WEST: Very heavy tropical rain continues along the I-35 corridor in Texas thanks to Hermine; it looks like some places out there have received 5 to 10 inches of rain. The core of the moisture from this former tropical storm will move up into Oklahoma, then curving east into Missouri, Kentucky, and southern parts of Illinois and Indiana later in the week. Most of the really deep moisture from Hermine will stay north of Alabama.

Our best hope for rain will come in the form of scattered afternoon showers and storms, and unfortunately they will be widely spaced through Friday due to the upper ridge over the region. The chance of any one spot getting wet today and tomorrow is only about one in eight, with the best chance over the Tennessee Valley region of extreme North Alabama with an old surface boundary nearby.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: This week we have a Thursday night special… Auburn travels to Starkville to play the Mississippi State Bulldogs. It is going to be a very warm and humid night; temperatures will drop from near 88 at kickoff to near 80 by the fourth quarter. There is a small risk of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly during the first half of the game.

THE WEEKEND: Looks like we might see an increase in the number of scattered showers and storms on Saturday with a surface front moving into the state from the north. Still, the rain won’t be especially widespread, but some neighborhoods might see a decent shower. Then, drier air drops into the state Sunday, meaning the humidity will drop. Nights will be cooler, and by early Monday and Tuesday morning of next week lows will drop down into the low to mid 60s. Highs will remain fairly close to 90, but it will feel better due to the lower humidity.

TROPICS: Gaston (the former tropical storm in the Caribbean) is going to have to prove himself… the system looks very ill defined this morning south of Hispaniola, and it seems like interaction with the island and dry air surrounding the system is keeping it from getting its act together. Models are split; some still want to ramp Gaston up into a hurricane over the western Caribbean, but others show no development at all. One way or another it looks like ridging over the Gulf will keep this moving toward the Yucatan. The one to watch is the strong wave in the far eastern Atlantic, most models bring this up to hurricane strength this weekend, but the GFS insists this one will recurve well east of the U.S. See the Weather Xtreme video for more details on all of this tropical action.

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Today I will be speaking at the Birmingham Social Media Club at Infomedia… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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