Spectacularly Cool Morning

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Looking over the records for my home weather station, you have to search all the way back to May 19th to find a morning as cool as this one! Yee-hah!!! Wow, really feels great out there this morning with most locations in the lower and mid 50s. And with dew points in the lower 50s, the humidity is way down from some of the muggy days we’ve been seeing over the last several months.

As I noted yesterday, the cool weather will be short lived. We should reach the mid 80s today followed by one more cool morning where the temperatures dip back into the 50s. But with the ridge coming back for much of the rest of the week, we should see highs return to the lower 90s primarily starting by Tuesday and continuing for the rest of the week and into next weekend.

The main reason for the returning warmth is the “energizer” ridge which comes back. But as the seasons are changing, the westerlies will remain active and several strong troughs moving through the flow will help to gradually dampen the ridge. So while it stays in place, it is not overly strong, but strong enough to maintain highs in the lower 90s.

Moisture will be slow to return, but by Wednesday and continuing through the weekend, there will be enough heat and moisture to mention isolated showers. I think most of us remain dry, but summertime air mass showers could pop up just about anywhere.

Tropics have settled down a bit with the end of Fiona and Earl. However, two areas of concern still remain. The remnants of Gaston do not look nearly as good on satellite imagery as it did yesterday. Conditions ahead of that disturbed area are conducive for additional regeneration of Gaston. Model runs suggest a due west motion which will bring the storm into the Caribbean sea. I do believe this one will need to be watched since there is potential for it to come into the Gulf of Mexico. I do not believe at this time that this is likely to be a strong storm primarily due to the track projections which keep the bulk of the storm over the Caribbean islands like Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

In the Bay of Campeche or Southwest Gulf, the area of disturbed weather has grown significantly since yesterday and the NHC now puts development chances at 50 percent. Satellite presentations suggest numerous thunderstorms in the area, however, organization is still limited. Development could occur but the few model projections suggest a track into eastern Mexico.

Long range GFS model projections keep the ridge across the southern tier of the US for much of the second week. However, a strong trough could bring another weak front into the Southeast US around the 20th. But that is a long way out. We can say there is certainly no signs of any real chill for us just yet.

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I’m headed back to the mountain, Mt. Cheaha, later today to continue some volunteer work with the Alabama State Park system. Love those guys and gals working up there and enjoying doing some tasks to help keep the park in good shape. Love seeing the deer, too, and hope I get another glimpse of the doe with her triplet fawns once again – this time I hope to have my camera with me! I hope you have a great week. James Spann should be back bright and early tomorrow morning with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video! Godspeed.

-Brian-

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