Mostly Dry Through The Weekend

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HOTTER TOMORROW: Some observations at 2:00 around Alabama include 92 at Muscle Shoals, 91 at the Shelby County Airport below Alabaster, and 88 at the Birmingham Airport. The sky is sunny, and the humidity is low with dewpoints in the low 60s. Tomorrow will be another sunny day with a high in the mid 90s.

FRIDAY FRONT: A cold front is due in here Friday evening, and we will continue to mention some risk of isolated showers or thunderstorms across the northern half of the state. The NAM is more aggressive than the GFS when it comes to the coverage of showers, but at this point it doesn’t look like rain will be especially widespread with the front.

WONDERFUL WEEKEND: Following the cold front, cooler and drier air settles into the state just in time for the Labor Day weekend and the beginning of the college football season. Highs drop into the mid 80s Saturday and Sunday, and we are forecast lows in the upper 50s early Sunday and Monday. Some of the cooler spots will drop down into the low 50s, and we have to wonder if a few spots might even touch 48 or 49 degrees. Fall weather is arriving right on time this year.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The pattern looks pretty dry for much of next week with hotter afternoons; we should be in the low 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper high builds across the Deep South. No major rain event is seen through 15 days on the 12Z GFS run.

TROPICS: Much to discuss….

EARL: This category three hurricane (packing winds now of 125 mph) will move with 100 miles of the Outer Banks of North Carolina late tomorrow night, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the North Carolina coast from Bogue Inlet, NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border. Earl will pass just east of Cape Cod late Friday night as a weakening storm, with landfall over Nova Scotia Saturday morning. Scroll down for Dr. Tim’s excellent analysis.

FIONA: Top winds in this tropical storm are now 60 mph; Fiona is expected to remain well east of the U.S. as it recurves in coming days, and it should remain below hurricane strength.

TD9: The new tropical depression in the East Atlantic should becoming Tropical Storm Gaston soon. The 12Z GFS takes Gaston on a path similar to Danielle and Fiona, with a recurvature into the North Atlantic well east of the U.S. coast (see the Weather Xtreme video), but that is certainly not carved in stone with this being a low latitude system. We will keep an eye on it.

And, another strong tropical wave is coming off the African coast right now; that one could become Tropical Storm Hermine at some point down the road.

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