Hurricane Earl 115 pm

Hurricane Earl has maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles from the center.  It is moving NW.  A recent US Air Force reconassiance flight found a flight level wind of 138 knots (159 mph), so Earl may be strengthening.  Clearly, this is a large and powerful hurricane that needs to be taken seriously by anyone on the east coast of the US north of Savannah, GA.

Earl has already begun its turn NW, into the weakness in the upper level ridge.  Hurricanes move toward a path of least resistance north.  On its current NW track, it would hit the US directly.  BUT, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.  Luckily, the first real cold front of the fall is coming in, with an upper-level trough, by Friday, and that trough will help push Earl more NE, likely keeping it from making a direct landfall on the East Coast.

The problem is, a slight deviation to the left could bring Earl into the outer banks of NC Friday, or even into Cape Cod Friday night.  However, the models are consistent day-to-day that this will not happen. 

However, we can’t focus on the exact track of the center of the hurricane, since it is so large.  Number one, with strong onshore flow north of the hurricane, a significant storm surge, possibly as high as 3 to 5 feet above normal tides, is possible from Wilmington, NC all the way to Boston.  Secondly, Earl is generating huge waves.  Buoys in the Atlantic are reporting waves around 38 feet this morning.  Analaysis of waves:

Notice that the red areas show waves over 30 feet, and the green areas show waves over 15 feet.  Some of these large waves will be approaching the coasts of NE FL, GA, SC, and NC later today.

Also, with Earl being so large, even if the NHC forecast track is right on, tropical storm force wind gusts could extend inland as far as Raleigh, Richmond, Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, NYC, and Manchester, NH.   Places like the outer banks of NC and Cape Cod will likely see wind gusts over 80 mph, possibly much higher.  Norfolk, VA and Long Island, NY could see wind gusts over 65 mph.

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