Hurricane Earl Analysis

Hurricane Earl has maximum sustained winds of 135 mph this afternoon.  It has weakened a little due to an eyewall replacement cycle (notice no clear hurricane eye), but is expected to intensify some more over the next 2 days.  After that, as it starts to encounter some wind shear near the US East Coast, it should weaken again, but still be at least a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph.

The track of Earl is the big question, since it will almost certainly be an intese hurricane as it approaches the east coast.  Earl is trying to turn NW today, into a weakness in the upper-level ridge left by Hurricane Danielle (some say that hurricanes follow the path of least resistance to the north).  However, this storm needs to make a 90 degree turn at least to avoid a landfall in the United States.  Right now, all models indicate that at will, in large part due to an approaching upper-level trough and cold front late this week.

Hopefully, the storm won’t speed up, and the front won’t slow down, because this one will be a close call, first for North Carolina, then for the Delmarva peninsula, then even for Long Island, Massachussetts, and Maine.  Here is the latest track forecast from NHC, and the computer models.

Even if Earl makes the big turn and avoids a direct landfall on the east coast, a hurricane this powerful will likely cause large storm surges to its north, in places like NC, SE VA, DE, and MD early on.  Then, some storm surge is possible in the NE US (including NYC and Boston).  But, it’s too early to tell exactly what will happen.  A small change of 100 miles in either direction could change this into a major disaster, or just a news event.  On the track, it will still be close enough to bring tropical storm force wind gusts possibly as far inland as Raleigh, NC and Williamsburg, VA.  The NHC is considering hurricane watches for parts of the US later today.

This is a storm to watch very closely.

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