Gulf of Mexico Activity

There is a large batch of heavy tropical thunderstorms south of the Louisiana/Mississippi Coast today, and although the environment is not favorable for significant tropical cyclone development, this little area of low pressure is packing a punch.

Some offshore observations show a south wind sustained between 20 and 30 miles per hour on the east side of the surface low. This probably won’t even grow strong enough to get the highlighted/hatched area from the National Hurricane Center, but the weather down on the coast from Pensacola across Alabama and into Mississippi and Louisiana will be a lot like it was when the remnants of T.D. Five kept passing through.

A strong ridge of high pressure in the northeastern US will help steer this weak surface low northwest into western Mississippi tomorrow. The computer models have gotten more aggressive with rain amounts and cloud cover around west Alabama for the weekend. In fact, the NAM is now suggesting even Birmingham has a chance of 1/2 to 1″ of rain tomorrow.

The ridge on the east coast will force most of the moisture into Mississippi and western Alabama on Sunday afternoon.

Needless to say, some adjustments to the forecast may be necessary through the next 24 hours as we try to get a handle on where the rain is headed.

Here’s the latest Seven Day Discussion.

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-Jason

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