Some Increase In Moisture This Weekend

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NOT MUCH CHANGE TODAY: You might see a shower or two on radar this afternoon, but they should be few and far between as relatively dry air covers the state. The high will be in the low 90s for most places.

SOME WEEKEND FORECAST CHANGES: Models are beginning to hint at a surge of low level moisture tomorrow night and Sunday, and it looks like we will need to introduce some risk of scattered showers and storms as far north as I-20. The northern third of the state should be generally dry. The high tomorrow will be in the upper 80s, but Sunday’s high could drop into the mid 80s with some clouds around and the risk of showers. For now we will go ahead and bump up the risk of showers for Sunday in our forecast based on the 00Z model runs.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Still no sign of any widespread rain event for Alabama for most of next week and into the Labor Day weekend as relatively dry air will cover the northern counties. Highs next week should be in the upper 80s and low 90s, about where they should be for the first few days of September. The only big rain during the next two weeks would have to come from the tropics, but all of the active systems don’t seem to be candidates to be Gulf of Mexico storms at this point.

FOUR AT ONCE: There is a possibility we will have four named system at one time next week… let’s discuss one at a time…

DANIELLE: Now a major hurricane with estimated winds at 135 mph, this hurricane will recurve east of Bermuda and is no threat to land. The turn will happen at about 62 west.

EARL: This is a tropical storm with winds of 45 mph, but is expected to be a major hurricane in five days. This, like Danielle, will pass north of the Leeward Islands, with a north turn and a recurve out to sea before reaching the U.S. East Coast. This one could threaten Bermuda, and could be close enough to bring some very rough surf to the upper Atlantic coast of the U.S. But, again, it should not threaten the U.S. directly.

FIONA? The well organized tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic should become a tropical depression later today, and ultimately Tropical Storm Fiona. Like Danielle and Earl, this is expected to become a major hurricane that will pass north of the Leeward Islands. Too early to know for sure, but it seems like this is yet another candidate for recurvature without impacting the U.S.

GASTON? A strong tropical wave will emerge off the coast of Africa later today, and should become Tropical Storm Gaston in the far eastern Atlantic this weekend. Too early to speculate on a possible track.

GULF OF MEXICO: Disturbed weather continues over the Gulf… we will be watching for potential backyard development; if anything forms down there it will most likely head west, toward the Texas coast.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Looks like another great night tonight for high school football, with a mostly fair sky, and temperatures dropping from the mid 80s at kickoff into the upper 70s by the fourth quarter.

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