Tropics Coming Alive; Our Weather Stays Calm

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RIGHT NOW: A cluster of showers has formed over Calhoun and Cleburne counties of East Alabama this afternoon, but otherwise 98 percent of the state is dry. These showers will die off quickly this evening, and the chance of widespread rain continues to look very small for foreseeable future with dry continental air in place. Birmingham reached 90 degrees at 2:00, so our string of consecutive days with a high under 90 ended at two.

REST OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND: No real change, partly to mostly sunny days will continue with highs in the 89 to 92 degree range for most places. You might see a blip or two on radar from time to time, but no widespread rain is expected. Early morning lows will be in the 68 to 72 degree range, with mid 60s for the cooler valleys of North Alabama.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL: The weather looks great for the opening week games tonight and tomorrow night. Mostly fair, with temperatures dropping from the mid 80s at kickoff into the upper 70s by the fourth quarter.

LONG RANGE:/VOODOO LAND: Still no sign of any significant rain event for Alabama through September 11. No doubt there will be a few days with showers on the radar, but prospects of a big, widespread rain look pretty slim unless some kind of tropical system gets involved.

TROPICS: Tropical systems are lining up all across the Atlantic and into Africa. Sure looks like a very busy September ahead. Let’s break them down one at a time…

DANIELLE: This is a hurricane, packing sustained winds estimated at 105 mph. The center is well north of the Leeward Islands, and the system is expected to move north, and then northeast into the open Atlantic with no impact on land. The recurve should occur east of Bermuda.

EARL: This tropical storm (estimated sustained winds of 45 mph now) is east of the Leeward Islands, and is expected to follow a similar track that Danielle has taken. This one could become a major hurricane, and we must note the 12Z GFS brings this one within 300 miles of the East Coast of the U.S. next week. If that is the case, it will bring huge swells and very dangerous surf to the upper half of the Atlantic coast. While we can’t rule out a strike on the East Coast, odds are that this one recurves before touching the U.S. mainland based on the ensemble approach.

FIONA? The next wave should be upgraded to a tropical depression at any time, and should become Tropical Storm Fiona as it moves westward across the Atlantic. Too early to be specific, of course, but the early models suggest this might take a track like Danielle and Earl, with a recurve into the Atlantic before touching the U.S. mainland. This could change.

GASTON? A strong wave is moving over the western part of the African continent, and the door is open for this one to ultimately become Gaston. You might need a scorecard before September is over. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for details on all of these systems.

GULF OF MEXICO: Let’s don’t forget the Gulf of Mexico is still unsettled; still some chance a broad tropical low will develop, moving toward the Texas coast. We will keep an eye on it.

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