Benign Weather Pattern For Alabama

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GENERALLY DRY WEATHER FOR A WHILE: The overall weather pattern for our state sure looks dry for the next two weeks. Today will feature a good supply of sunshine, with a high in the low 90s for most communities. The humidity will remain low after another pleasant morning. Many of our Skywatchers are reporting mid 60s this morning, including 66 at Bessemer and Coker. Coolest spot we can find this morning is Crossville, up in Northeast Alabama, with 61.

The GFS continues to show some type of tropical wave feature moving from east to west across Alabama Friday and Saturday, and the model suggests there might be enough moisture with that feature for a few isolated showers over the southern two-thirds of the state. If the 12Z run keeps this, we will insert isolated showers into the forecast. Nothing widespread, and the sky will be partly sunny. Then, a new surge of drier air moves in from the northeast Sunday and into early next week. The GFS MOS shows highs in the 88 to 91 degree range Sunday through Tuesday, not bad at all for late August in Alabama. I think we can say very high confidence the worst of the summer heat is now well behind us.

TROPICS: Lots of action. Danielle has regained hurricane status in the Atlantic northeast of the Leeward Islands; the storm will curve northward well before reaching the East Coast of the U.S., and most likely will remain east of Bermuda. Then, it should ultimately turn northeast out to sea without causing any impact on land.

Behind Danielle we have a strong tropical wave that should become Tropical Storm Earl in coming days; the GFS shows it taking an almost identical path to Danielle, with recurvature well before reaching the U.S.

Another strong tropical wave will emerge off the African coast today as the wave train is really cranking up. And, the Gulf of Mexico remains unsettled, but no sign of organization, and winds aloft don’t favor any tropical development in the short term.

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