Watching TD5 In The Gulf

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STILL HOT TODAY AND TOMORROW: Not much change in the short term; our weather stays hot and muggy with highs in the 95 to 99 degree range with only widely scattered storms during the afternoon and evening hours. But, confidence is growing that a heat-buster type event is setting up late this week and over the weekend, thanks to our new tropical system in the Gulf.

TD5: No change in structure this morning; the depression is centered about 200 miles south of Apalachicola, Florida, and is moving to the northwest at 10 mph. Sustained winds are only 35 mph. Most dynamic models do bring TD5 to tropical storm strength during the next 24 hours, but hardly any of them bring it to hurricane strength. Needless to say, there is great oceanic heat content over the GOM, but easterly shear is expected to keep this one from blowing up into a really dangerous storm. And that is exactly what we need.

We do note a tropical storm warning remains in effect from Intracoastal City, LA east to Destin, FL, including all of the Alabama Gulf Coast. Remember, when looking at the tracking maps we show, for a broad system like this the single line doesn’t really tell the story; a deep plume of tropical moisture will be pulled northward into a large part of the Southeast U.S. with this one.

BENEFICIAL RAIN POSSIBLE: Landfall should be over extreme Southeast Louisiana, or coastal Mississippi late tomorrow or tomorrow night. Then, the center of the system will move slowly north, and then northeast; NHC puts the remnant low near Tuscaloosa late Saturday night. This slow movement, and the fact that we will be on the moist east side of the circulation, should mean a good chance of tropical showers and a few thunderstorms Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. The is clear potential for beneficial amounts of rain, with amounts of 1 to 2 inches likely, and no doubt some spots could see more. And, heat levels will back down, with highs back in the low to mid 90s over the weekend. It is possible some places won’t make it out of the 80s where clouds and rain are around all day.

NEXT WEEK: It is interesting to note that with collapsing steering currents, the GFS keeps the broad low hanging around Alabama into the first half of next week, meaning we will maintain a good chance of showers and storms on through the first of next week. Getting a weak tropical system like this in here in mid-August is really an answer to prayer for a parched state that has suffered through a long, hot summer.

As always, there will be some surprises with tropical systems, so we will keep a close eye on things as the system evolves and moves toward the Gulf Coast. Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all the details.

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