Tropical Rain Later This Week?

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WATCHING THE GULF: Not much weather change for Alabama in the short term; hot humid weather continues today and tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 90s, with the risk of widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Today will be the 37th consecutive day with a high of 90 or hotter as the long summer rolls along. But, all eyes are on the Gulf as we have some potential for tropical rain and reduced heat levels later in the week.

THIS MORNING: A broad 1010 mb low is located in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico, west of Fort Myers, Florida, and is moving to the west/northwest slowly. Upper air winds seem to be favorable for development, and certainly there is ample oceanic heat content available, with SSTs well up in the 80s. Most dynamic models ramp this up into a tropical storm, with potential landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River across Southeast Louisiana Thursday. Then, the circulation center curves northeast, with the GDFL putting it over Northwest Alabama by Friday night. Should this solution be correct, we will be on the moist, east side of the system, and we will have good potential for some tropical rain statewide late in the week.

However, the upper ridge has been very persistent this summer as we all know, and should the ridge be stronger than the models indicate, then the landfall would be farther west, and the most widespread rain could miss us. But, one way or another we should clearly see an increase in moisture levels late in the week and into the weekend, with a better coverage of showers and storms and decreasing heat levels due to the clouds and showers.

The models are also a little more aggressive with strengthening of the system, and while it is most likely that it makes landfall as a tropical storm, the idea of a minimal hurricane is not totally out of the question. But, the main impact should be rain, and hopefully some of that will fall on our state that needs it so badly.

WEEKEND PEEK: Lots of moisture will be left hanging over Alabama, so we expect scattered to numerous showers and storms over the weekend with highs in the mid 90s Saturday and Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the 00Z GFS brings a surface boundary in here early next week, with potential for enhanced rain coverage. The front stalls, and a surface low forms on the old boundary Tuesday. This could be a welcomed situation as it would mean a good chance of rain and lower heat levels once again.

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I will be speaking at Alabama Power Company this morning in downtown Birmingham… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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