Tropical Development Possible In The Gulf

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THIS AFTERNOON: Most Alabama communities are in the mid 90s at mid-afternoon… 3:00 observations include 96 at Birmingham and Tuscaloosa, 95 at Anniston, and 88 at Haleyville (the cooler value there is thanks to a nearby thunderstorm). Strong storms have formed in a few spots, with the most numerous ones over the northwest quarter of Alabama. Showers are very hard to find south of I-20 at the moment, but there is time for more storms to fire during the next few hours.

AIR QUALITY ALERT: An air quality alert has been issued for tomorrow for the Birmingham metro area due to the potential for ground level ozone. This is for Jefferson and Shelby Counties.

REST OF THE WEEK: The weather won’t change all that much tomorrow and Wednesday. Hot and humid with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Highs will stay in the 95 to 99 degree range for most communities.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: We still expect a general increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms during this four day stretch as a copious amount of tropical moisture moves northward into Alabama. Temperatures should also back down a bit due to the increased clouds and shower activity, with highs in the low 90s by the weekend. But, the actual weather will be determined by the behavior of a potential tropical storm in the northern Gulf in coming days.

BACKYARD DEVELOPMENT: Watch the Weather Xtreme video for more details; we have a broad surface low this afternoon near Fort Myers, Florida; the dynamic models that pick this up move the system to a point over Southeast Louisiana in about 72 hours, and most ramp it up into a tropical storm. Odds are that this won’t become a hurricane; in fact this could be a “good” tropical system with potential for beneficial rain for parched parts of the southern U.S. More than likely, the most organized rain will stay west of Alabama, but we will be on the moist east side of the circulation, which should push ample tropical moisture northward into our state. We will keep an eye on this in coming days.

OUT IN THE ATLANTIC: Another disturbance has a very good chance to become a tropical storm, but this one will be recurving into the open Atlantic and is no threat to land.

VOODOO LAND: The 12Z GFS still shows a tropical system in the far southern Gulf of Mexico in about 15-16 days; see the Weather Xtreme video for more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record tonight’s show at 8:30; you can listen/watch live here. And, the show will be on iTunes and the web late tonight.

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I had a great time today speaking to the teachers in the Blount County school system up at J.B. Pennington High School in Blountsville; by the end of this week just about all Alabama students will be back in the classroom. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

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