Some Tropical Mischief This Week?

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TODAY: Most places will see a high in the 95 to 99 degree range today; it will be the 36th consecutive day with a high of 90 degrees or higher for most Alabama communities including Birmingham. This heat wave won’t be remembered for extremely high maximum temperatures like heat waves of the past (very few daily record highs have been achieved), but it has featured remarkable persistence in above normal temperatures through July and the first week of August. The average high for this time of the year is 91, so we have been beating that by 5 to 10 degrees on most days.

There will be thunderstorms around later today, but they will be widely spaced, much like yesterday.

REST OF THE WEEK: This is August in Alabama, so the weather will stay hot and humid, but heat levels should back down during the latter half of the week, with coverage of scattered showers and storms slowly going up with moisture levels on the rise.

WEEKEND PEEK: The air looks pretty moist on Saturday and Sunday, meaning the risk of scattered to numerous showers and storms, with highs mostly in the low to mid 90s.

GULF OF MEXICO ISSUES? See the Weather Xtreme video for more details; a broad surface low this morning is just east of Daytona Beach, Florida. At this point there is little convection associated with the low, but it will be forced westward, under the heat ridge, and a number of the dynamic models develop this into a tropical depression or storm in coming days over the northern Gulf. Some take it north into a weakness in the ridge over Louisiana and Mississippi, others keep the ridge stronger, forcing it toward Southeast Texas. Most likely this won’t develop into a hurricane, but could be a weaker system that has potential to bring beneficial rain. Most likely, the core of the organized rain will be west of our state, but we will be on the moist east side, and it should help to bring an increase in moisture to Alabama late this week and into the weekend. We will keep an eye on this in coming days.

OTHER TROPICAL NOTES: Tropical Storm Colin has fizzled out in the Atlantic, and a disturbance in the mid-Atlantic could develop into a tropical storm, but it will recurve harmlessly into the open North Atlantic. We do note the 00Z GFS shows a tropical cyclone in the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week; see the Weather Xtreme video for the details.

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I will be speaking up in Blountsville this morning to all of the teachers in the Blount County system as we all get ready for the new school year to begin. I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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