Drier – Mostly Shower Free

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Last week when I did the Weather Xtreme Video, dew points in Central Alabama were running in the lower 70s. This morning the dew points are in the mid and upper 60s – certainly not a big change, but enough of a change to make it feel a little nicer. And it looks like the drier air will stick around through the 4th with moisture levels coming back up as we get into Monday.

Drier air means that we probably won’t see any showers, but if you were watching the radar closely yesterday, we still saw a couple of very small showers in Central Alabama. So while we can’t rule out any showers, I think the vast majority of us will not see any showers until the start of the upcoming week. That means that the Fourth of July celebrations – many of which begin today – should be able to proceed without any interference from the weather.

Temperatures will still be warm, though, as we see highs over the weekend to around 90. Those temperatures creep up as we get into the middle of next week.

The upper air pattern remains dominated with a large ridge that extends all the way from the Gulf of Mexico to New England. This will be bringing a lot of warm weather to the eastern half of the country. Two features in the tropics will bear watching, but at the moment, neither looks likely to evolve into a tropical storm or hurricane. There is a weak surface low in the northeastern Gulf this morning that is drifting slowly southwesterly and it is not expected to develop into a tropical storm. In fact, convection around the non-tropical low was very limited.

The other is a weak upper low that the GFS shows over the Bahamas on Tuesday. This upper low moves slowly northwestward into the northeastern Gulf on Wednesday but weakens and becomes absorbed into the pattern by Thursday. We’ll need to keep a wary eye on both of these but there is not likely to be any significant development with either one.

So as we head into the latter part of the upcoming week, the pattern returns to daily chances for afternoon and early evening thunderstorms with hit or miss rainfall.

Looking further out into the future, another trough could impact the Southeast US around the 15th of July but by the 18th we’re back into a typical summer pattern.

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I hope that you have a great July 3rd whatever your plans might be. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 7:30 or so tomorrow morning. My wife and I will be getting together with some good friends this afternoon for a great July 4th feast – in fact, the potato salad is already chilling in the refrigerator with only the deviled eggs to be fixed! Yum, yum!!! Godspeed.

-Brian-

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