New Hurricane Alex Advisory

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..ALEX HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET…BUT FORECAST TO DO SO TODAY

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…23.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 145 MI…235 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI…310 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…961 MB…28.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE
95.5 WEST. ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH…11
KM/HR…BUT A TURN MORE TO THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AFTER
THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES…325 KM PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 961 MB…28.38 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES…
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX
ARE SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

WIND…HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER…TROPICAL STORM WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN SOON…MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST…
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…400 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

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