10 a.m. Info on Alex

THE LATEST
…Alex weakens to tropical depression over Yucatan
…Will reach Gulf of Mexico again tonight and restrengthen
…Expected to become a hurricane by early Tuesday morning
…Projected landfall in northern Mexico about 100 miles south of Brownsville late Wednesday night
…Intensity at landfall projected to be 85 mph
…Tropical storm force winds should stay south of the US border

MODEL OUTPUT
…Morning run of NAM was out to 72h when I wrote this…forecast landfall Wednesday morning in northern Mexico
…Track guidance is still fairly well clustered on the northern Mexico landfall. A couple of outlier models take it to the Central Texas Coast
…06z run of GFDL on track with a northern Mexico landfall as minimal hurricane
…06z run of HWRF carries it to near Brownsville TX early Thursday morning
Will be waiting to see what the GFS says, if it continues its recent trend of taking it toward Southwest Louisiana. We will have initial indications in the next hour or so.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…18.7N 90.6W
ABOUT 85 MI…135 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI…125 KM E OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

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