Interesting Forecast Ahead

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Yesterday the forecast looked so straightforward with pretty good confidence. Today, the latest run from the GFS plus the future course of Alex make for a rather muddied picture with my forecast confidence tanking big time! Ah, the joys of the weather biz!

Across the northern third of Alabama we had quite a few thunderstorms with some large areas getting wet. Those thunderstorms have laid down boundaries that are likely to become the focus for thunderstorms today. Still thunderstorms are likely to be scattered where everyone won’t get wet. And this pattern of relatively warm temperatures and high humidity will be sticking around into the upcoming week at least through mid-week. But that is when the picture gets very muddy with the approach of a front from the northwest and the approach of Alex into the western – perhaps northwestern Gulf.

Speaking of Alex, it is holding its own as it moves slowly across the Yucatan Peninsula. Alex remained a tropical storm and the satellite presentation looked pretty good. Still Alex may dip in strength to a depression before emerging in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico where it is likely to strengthen rather quickly to our first hurricane of the 2010 season. The course of Alex is, however, somewhat debatable!

The official NHC forecast takes Alex into the northern Mexican coast. And this track seems like the most probable one with the approach of a front from the north. However, the GFS is presenting a scenario that is also possible. The strong trough moving through the flow is forecast to get stronger and bring a front into the Southeast US. As Alex and that trough get closer, could the trough pick up Alex and bring it northward through the western Gulf? I do remember a storm in 1985, Elena, that was picked up by a trough which turned the storm eastward toward Florida. But the two systems de-coupled and Elena returned to the original path coming ashore in Mississippi.

This makes this situation one to really watch – a real ‘stay tuned’ cliff hanger!!! Should Alex come northward into the Louisiana/Texas coastal area as the GFS is showing, it could have a significant effect on the weather across a large section of the Southeast including Alabama. Clouds and improved rain chances would likely keep temperatures in the 80s – a major change from the weather of the recent week. Rain could also be widespread enough to wash out some July 4th celebrations. Did I say this is a ‘stay tuned’ page turner?

So the bottom line is that the forecast is not carved in stone – jello perhaps! And it is likely to change as we get a better handle on the interaction of all the meteorological players!

Looking much further afield, the GFS is suggesting another tropical system off the east coast of Florida around July 7th and one around Bermuda around the 12th.

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I had a great time emceeing the musical production at Helena United Methodist Church last night. Wonderful crowd and fantastic talent from all of the choir members. I’m very honored to be able to work with such fine folks. James Spann will be back with the next Weather Xtreme Video bright and early tomorrow morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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