Sun And Storms

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HEAT LEVELS BACK DOWN A BIT: I am not sure you can tell the difference between a high of 95 and 92, but most places should be about three degrees “cooler” today as the upper ridge weakens a bit in response to the trough passing north of here, and the coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms should be a little greater. Very standard summer weather for Alabama (be sure and scroll down and read the post below this one); hot and humid with “scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms”. This will be the story through Thursday; the chance of any one spot getting wet is about one in three, and due to light winds aloft, where storms develop rain could be heavy since they will be almost stationary.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The ridge wants to strengthen a bit, but the 00Z GFS really suggests no major changes over the weekend; partly sunny, hot, and humid days with the risk of an afternoon shower or storm in scattered spots. Highs in the 92 to 95 degree range, with the heat index occasionally touching 100 degrees away from storms.

REST OF JUNE: Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the GFS shows no major surprises through the end of the month; the day to day weather changes will be driven by small scale features that won’t show up on synoptic scale maps, and we can’t identify those changes far in advance. Bottom line is that is looks like fairly typical summer weather around here for the foreseeable future.

TROPICS: Still a narrow window for the disturbance in the middle of the Atlantic to become a tropical depression, but winds aloft will increase in coming days, and odds are this won’t become a major issue. We will also keep an eye on a convective mass down in the Bay of Campeche; this is where early season systems like to form. See the Weather Xtreme video for more details.

AT THE BEACH: We are projecting about 4 to 6 hours of sunshine each day along the Central Gulf Coast for the rest of the week, with the daily risk of scattered showers and storms. Scattered storms should be fewer in number by the weekend, along with increasing amounts of sunshine as the upper ridge grows stronger. Highs will be close to 90, but just a few miles inland mid 90s are likely.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a few episode tonight at 8:30 CDT; it will be on iTunes and the web by midnight.

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I am on the road to Winston County this morning for a program at the Double Springs Library… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!

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