Unsettled Weekend Weather

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TODAY: Today won’t be different from recent days; a very warm afternoon with highs in the 87 to 90 degree range along with a good supply of sunshine. And, during the afternoon, a few showers and storms will form, but they should be widely spaced, and many places will remain dry. The chance of any one spot getting wet later today is about one in five.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: A weak upper low will meander around the Deep South over the holiday weekend, meaning we will have to dodge showers and storms on a daily basis through Monday. The NAM is printing 0.86″ for Birmingham during the next 84 hours, while the GFS is drier with 0.34″. Understand we have to use caution with using QPF output during the summer season due to the scattered nature of showers and storms; rainfall distribution tends to be rather uneven.

The best chance of showers and storms over the weekend will come during the afternoon and evening hours, but we can’t rule out a morning or nighttime shower due to the upper low. And, some of the storms that form during the afternoon could produce some hail and gusty winds. SPC has low end 5 percent severe weather probabilities across the state tomorrow. Highs over the weekend will be generally in the mid 80s.

On the positive side, the sun will be out at times, and the rain won’t be continuous. Just keep in mind that you will have to dodge occasional raindrops if you have something planned outdoors each day through Memorial Day.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Showers and storms will thin out by the middle of next week as the upper low dissipates. Then, late in the week, an approaching upper trough will bring an increase in showers by Friday (June 4). Model output has varied on what to expect the following weekend (June 5-6); some runs have shown cooler and drier air moving into the state from the north, but last night’s 00Z GFS suggests the front will hang up resulting in a wet weekend. We will have more clarity by Monday.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

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We are going on a holiday production schedule, so we will be producing just one Weather Xtreme video a day through Monday; we will be back on the two a day schedule Tuesday. Enjoy the weekend and stay safe!

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