Quick Check on the Tropics…

Two areas of concern in the tropical Atlantic. First is a disturbed area of weather over the northwestern Caribbean. It is associated with a strong tropical wave. A feature called a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough was also over the Florida Keys. This has led to the formation of an upper low this morning. This upper low could eventually lead to the formation of a surface low. The Canadian model has consistently presented the idea of a tropical depression forming near Cuba, then moving westward across the Gulf in the short term. It had backed off that idea yesterday, but it was back last night. I think the formation of the upper low this morning could be a precursor to the depression happening. It would head toward Texas or Mexico.

Secondly, we are very close to having a tropical depression in the far eastern Atlantic southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. QuikScat satellite imagery shows a closed surface circulation with some surface winds of about 30 knots. It is over marginally warm water and is under some wind shear, which is holding it back now.

This system has the opportunity to become a strong Cape Verde hurricane as it moves slowly westward across the Atlantic. It is still 2,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The GFDL model has it as a 110 mph hurricane 500 miles east southeast of Puerto Rico by Thursday night. This is consistent with the GFS, which carries it south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Friday. The storm passes just south of the Dominican Republic and Cuba over the weekend and into the Gulf. It then heads toward Mexico as the heat ridge remains strong across the Deep South according to the GFS.

Still plenty of scenarios to consider with this one. It could recurve. It could threaten the East Coast (the solution depicted by the ECMWF Model). It could move into the Gulf. It might never amounts to anything. We will just have to wait and see.

If you are traveling to the Caribbean in the week ahead, you will want to carefully monitor the latest information on what could become Dean.

In the Central Pacific, Hurricane Flossie peaked at Category Four intensity yesterday. The hurricane will gradually weaken through Tuesday, dropping to Category One status. It will pass south of the Hawaiian islands on Wednesday with some strong winds and hopefully some drought denting rains.

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