Unsettled Weekend Ahead

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TODAY: Another good looking day is ahead for Alabama today. A good supply of sunshine with a high around 80 degrees. To the west a large upper trough will form, and will set the stage for some very wet weather for parts of the mid-south this weekend.

TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY: Still somewhat of a challenging forecast, but it still looks like the heaviest rain and the greatest risk of severe weather will stay just a little west of here.

We believe most of the day tomorrow will be warm, dry, and breezy at times with a high up in the mid 80s. A few showers will likely move up in here tomorrow night from the south, but nothing especially heavy. Strong to severe storms will break out tomorrow across a wide zone all the way from Louisiana and Mississippi north to the western Great Lakes; SPC has a slight risk of severe weather defined for this region. That risk does not include any part of Alabama.

On Saturday, the risk remains generally north and west of us, with the risk just clipping the northwest corner of Alabama. I think the big risk this weekend will be heavy rain and flooding for cities like Memphis, Jackson, Little Rock, and Louisville, where totals over 5 inches are possible. Here in our state, the Muscle Shoals area could very well have some flooding issues as well. I would say the heaviest rain over the weekend will fall over Colbert, Lauderdale, Franklin, and Lawrence counties of Northwest Alabama.

For the rest of the state, no doubt we will be in a very warm and moist airmass that could produce a shower or storm at any time, but the main dynamic lift will remain to the west. So, Saturday and Sunday look like days with more clouds than sun and the risk of occasional passing showers or storms. Highs will be in the 80s. Just, with the zone of severe weather and flooding potential just to the west, we will have to watch radar developments closely.

NEXT WEEK: Showers and storms should become more numerous statewide Monday as the upper trough moves east. The 00Z run wants to dry us out by Tuesday, but other runs have kept us wet all the way through Wednesday of next week. Severe weather doesn’t seem to be a major threat Monday as dynamics weaken, but we all know we have to watch things carefully in late April and early May. The latter half of the week looks dry.

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I am speaking to a First Priority group this morning at Oak Mountain Intermediate School, and then I have a weather program at Chalkville Elementary. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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