Tornado Analysis – 1213 pm

The above chart, EHI or energy helicity index, shows the combination of wind shear for storm rotation and instability for storm development. Anything over 1 is considered sufficient for tornadoes, over 5 is extreme, but 11 in eastern MS? That is as high as I have ever seen it. So why have storms not exploded in that region so far?

The atmosphere has a slight cap of warm air near 4,000 feet, preventing widespread convective devlopment. But, as thu upper-level dynamics cause the cap to cool, and surface temperatures warm, severe storms and tornadoes will likely explode over eastern MS anytime, and move into western Alabama this afternoon.

Do not let your guard down at all. We still think a major tornado outbreak is likely in Alabama this afternoon.

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