Big Weather Changes Ahead

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HERE COMES THE FRONT: Severe weather watches are up from Northeast Texas to Illinois and Indiana this afternoon as a strong upper trough supports a cold front moving through that region. Here at home, we have a partly sunny, warm, and rather muggy afternoon with temperatures in the 77 to 81 degree range for most spots. Dewpoints are generally in the mid 50s.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW: The main 12 hour window for showers and storms will come from about midnight tonight through noon tomorrow. Storms could be on the strong side as they enter Northwest Alabama tonight, but they should weaken during the overnight hours as they move east into a more stable airmass, and the upper air support lags to the west. While we don’t expect a major severe weather problem, we do note the 12Z model runs are showing parameters a little more favorable for strong storms early tomorrow morning…

Some severe weather parameters for Birmingham valid at 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Surface based CAPE: 751 j/kg
0 to 1 km storm relative helicity 213 m2/s2
Significant tornado parameter 1.01
Craven/Brooks significant severe index 91,590

We will keep an eagle eye on them. When it comes to thunderstorms, expected the unexpected, you know.

The NAM is now showing 0.43″ for Birmingham for this event, while the GFS is similar with 0.49″. All of the rain could be out of the state by mid-afternoon as drier air begins to take over. And, the day will be much cooler with a high in the 67 to 70 degree range.

SOME FROST: Still looks like the colder valleys across North and Central Alabama will drop down into the low to mid 30s early Friday and Saturday with a chance of frost… growers need to be aware of that. Most places will see a low in the 38 to 42 degree range those mornings.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Delightful spring weather… sunny mild days and clear cool nights. We expect upper 60s Friday, low 70s Saturday, and mid 70s Sunday. Doesn’t get much better.. and hopefully the rain tomorrow will wash away lots of that nasty pine pollen that is still giving the sky a yellow-green tint today.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS continues the idea that our weather stays dry next week with a mean upper ridge over the Southeast U.S. And, in the longer range, we still believe the rest of April will feature below average rainfall, with above average temperatures.

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I enjoyed spending some time today speaking to a class at the University of Montevallo… their campus sure is beautiful at this time of the year. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow..

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