SPC Update

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

AREAS AFFECTED…NERN MS…NWRN AL…WRN/MIDDLE TN…SWRN KY

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251814Z – 251915Z

…STRONG STORMS EXPECTED DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT…

CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING/INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE
BENEATH UPPER LOW OVER NRN AR. THIS FEATURE IS WELL DEFINED AND HAS
A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POCKET…H5 OF MINUS 20-22C…INVOF STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS…THOUGH CURRENT ACTIVITY IS MATURING WITHIN VEERED POST
FRONTAL FLOW. OF MORE CONCERN ARE THE NEW UPDRAFTS ALONG/AHEAD OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM NERN MS…NWD ACROSS WRN TN. AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITHIN MODIFIED WARM/MOIST SECTOR THE THREAT FOR
ROBUST CONVECTION WILL INCREASE. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR ANY STORMS
THAT MANAGE TO EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION MAY ROTATE. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT MEAGER…WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

..DARROW.. 03/25/2010

ATTN…WFO…OHX…BMX…HUN…PAH…MEG…

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