Wet/Stormy Weather For Alabama

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RIGHT NOW: We begin the day with a large mass of rain along with embedded thunderstorms across our state this morning. The air is stable, and the storms are elevated, so severe weather won’t be a problem this morning. This initial batch of rain will taper off by late morning, and the big question is the destabilization potential for stronger storms this evening.

One way or another, instability values will be very limited later today, which should prevent a major severe weather outbreak here. However, dynamics are good and shear values support a few sustained, and perhaps rotating updrafts. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for Alabama, generally west of I-65. I think the window for strong to severe storms will be fairly narrow; generally in the 4:00 to 8:00 p.m. time frame. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the high resolution RPM does indeed show a line of strong storms passing through at that time. The storms should weaken as they move east of I-65 into more stable air.

We do have to remember this is late March, and when it comes to thunderstorms, expected the unexpected. We will be watching trends closely as the day rolls along.

TOMORROW: Clouds will linger into tomorrow morning; we will be optimistic and indicate the sky becoming partly sunny by afternoon. Models are in much better agreement with temperatures; the day will be cooler with a high around 60. Should the clouds linger longer than expected, which is certainly possible, we could very well stay in the 50s all day.

OUR WEEKEND: Saturday still looks like a delightful early spring day, with ample sunshine and a high around 70 degrees. Then, the next short wave brings another round of showers and possibly a thunderstorm on Sunday. Instability looks very limited, and for now the chance of a big severe weather issue looks small.

NEXT WEEK: Monday will feature a clearing sky with a high in the low 60s; beyond that the week looks generally delightful with sunny days and fair nights. We could be getting close to 80 degrees at some point during the latter half of the week.

VOODOO LAND: Watch the video and you will see the GFS is showing a late season cold snap around April 9… I still think the potential for a late season freeze threat is high, and it is too early to be planting anything that will be harmed by freezing temperatures. The average date of the last freeze here is March 26, but we have had a freeze as late as April 23. I would suggest April 10 might be a safe time to plant.

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I have a weather program this morning at Paine Primary School in Trussville… I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day!

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