Wet Days Ahead

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THIS AFTERNOON: Interesting to note a severe thunderstorm has developed over East Mississippi, producing golf ball sized hail near Collinsville. There is very little surface based instability; seems like a pocket of cold air aloft is responsible for that little flare up. Here in Alabama, most of the showers are over the western side of the state, we will maintain the chance of showers tonight statewide, with the heaviest rain near the Gulf Coast.

TOMORROW: This still looks like our wettest day of the week, with rain and storms likely statewide. Seems like 1 to 2 inches of rain is likely around this part of the state, with heavier amounts to the south, where the NWS in Mobile has issued a flash flood watch for their counties in Southwest Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. SPC maintains a slight risk (their standard risk) of severe storms for areas west of Alabama tomorrow, but with a rain cooled, stable airmass around here, I don’t think we will have any serious severe weather problems. But again, this is March and you always have to keep a close eye on the radar this time of the year.

THURSDAY: This still looks like a day when rain will end during the early morning hours. There is potential for some midday sunshine, allowing some decent surface based instability, and there will be risk of shower or storm redevelopment in scattered spots Thursday afternoon if temperatures rise into the 70s. We note the GFS is printing a high of 75 Thursday (based on the idea of midday sun), while the GFS show only a high of 68 with clouds most of the day. If storms can develop Thursday afternoon, they could be rather potent with some potential for hail.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: A huge upper low will develop just north of here Friday; that will keep a chance of showers going both Friday and Saturday, although we don’t expect either day to be a wash-out. Look for lots of clouds; the high Friday will be close to 70, but Saturday promises to be noticeable cooler, with a high only in the mid to upper 50s. Sunday looks dry with a partly sunny sky and a high in the low 60s.

GULF COAST WEATHER: The weekend looks dry along the Alabama/Northwest Florida Gulf Coast, with a good supply of sunshine Saturday and Sunday and a high near 60 on the immediate coast, with mid to upper 60s for inland areas.

NEXT WEEK: Monday look dry, but the 12Z run brings a strong upper impulse here that would suggest showers on Tuesday. Very cold air aloft might even mean some hail with those showers, then drier air returns for the latter half of the week. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for the day by day breakdown.

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I had a great time today visiting kids at First Baptist pre-K in Columbiana, and Gwin Elementary in Hoover… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

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