Winter Storm Ahead

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Before we dive into the forecast for tomorrow, let’s all remember…. with any snow event in Alabama:

*There will be surprises
*Some will be delighted, others severely disappointed by the amount of snow they see

Having said that…

I won’t change the forecast this morning, but some adjustments could be needed after the 12Z model runs are in the shop.

WHEN? Snow should enter Southwest Alabama after midnight tonight, with snow becoming widespread over the southern half of Alabama during the day tomorrow. All of the snow will be over by 9:00 tomorrow night.

WHERE, AND HOW MUCH? The heaviest snow in Alabama should be in the general area from U.S. 80 to U.S. 84… where 1 to 3 inches is likely. No doubt there could be some 5 inch totals in there somewhere, but there really isn’t much skill in trying to identify that area until the snow bands set up tomorrow, and we can see if there is a clear deformation axis. Some of the cities in this heavier snow zone include Camden, Grove Hill, Monroeville, Greenville, Troy, Eufaula, Montgomery, Selma, and Auburn.

Up this way, for the I-20 corridor, we have one inch on our accumulation map you can see on the Weather Xtreme video. This includes Birmingham, Anniston, and Tuscaloosa. The one inch zone extends down to Montgomery, but somebody like Clanton, Greensboro, Rockford, or Brent might pick up a little more than one inch.

North of I-20, we have a “dusting” for now. Snow should fall over much of North Alabama, but there will be very little moisture for this part of the state.

And, way down south, accumulating snow is likely as far as as I-10… including Mobile, Bay Minette, and Crestview. And yes, snow flakes are possible to the Gulf Coast.

TRAVEL ISSUES? Certainly likely where the heaviest snow falls down south, and there could be slick spots up this way with the lighter snow.

I will have an updated snow accumulation map by 11:00… and the NWS will issue winter storm warnings and advisories at that time. Bottom line is that we want to see the 12Z model suite before we make any adjustments (if they are needed). We all know the snow accumulation won’t be in those perfect straight lines you see on the accumulation maps we draw, but those are needed for emergency managers and others that must make plans prior to a winter storm.

THE WEEKEND: Saturday will be cold and dry; a clipper moving in from the northwest on Sunday will squeeze out a little light snow or snow flurries. Then, colder air arrives Monday. We will stay below freezing much of the day with very low wind chill values and some risk of flurries. A good chance we visit the upper teens by daybreak Tuesday.

VOODOO COUNTRY: Watch the Weather Xtreme video for ideas deeper into February… the weather still looks cold and unsettled.

STORM ALERT 2010 IS COMING TO WALKER COUNTY TONIGHT: Our annual severe weather rolls along; our next stop will be tonight at Bevill State Community College in Sumiton. You can meet the ABC 33/40 Weather team, see some amazing Alabama weather stories, learn how to keep your family safe this tornado season, and win some cool stuff. The show begins at 7:00; be sure and get there early to get a good seat. See the entire tour schedule here! I hope to see many of you there.

LIVE CHAT: We are now offering a real time chat here on the blog… open blog comments will stay in place, of course, but this will allow a more immediate method of communication for weather geeks. We do have moderators posted over there, so be sure and play nice. Members of our weather team will be there from time to time to answer questions; we will post those times we are available here on the blog.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

I will be doing a weather program this morning down in Bibb County at Centreville Middle School… look for the updated snow outlook in the 11:00 hour, and the next full discussion and Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day!

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