Wet and Mild

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After a long spell of cold and dry, we appeared headed for a spell of mild along with some wet. Rain was occurring this morning along the Alabama and Northwest Florida Gulf Coast. Our atmosphere as shown by the sounding from the Shelby County Airport sounding last night remained relatively dry in the lower layers. This means that we will remain dry for the morning as the atmosphere continues to moisten up with rain likely later this afternoon and into the overnight hours. However, compared with the first two weeks of January, it is going to be warm. Temperatures this morning were hovering around the 50-degree mark across Central Alabama – these are values more closely suited for our highs for the middle of January. But I will take it so I can thaw out some!

The rain and the bulk of the clouds should depart on Sunday as the surface low heads up into the Mid-Atlantic States and the upper closed low moves by fairly quickly. The pattern shifts a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday with the traveling weather systems nudged further north. But a fast moving short wave coming through the Great Lakes will help to push the high into the Northeast Gulf allowing moisture return through Texas.

We should stay dry through much of Wednesday before the next system brings another round of rain late Wednesday and into Thursday. An upper ridge on Friday should keep us dry. The next system begins to take shape late Friday and into Saturday well to our west. I think for now Saturday should remain dry but late Saturday and Sunday looks wet for our next rain event. And there currently appears to be no sign of any extreme cold.

Severe weather may occur today and tonight along the Gulf coast. The big question will be whether or not the warm front gets ashore allowing enough destabilization of the atmosphere for severe storms. The shears seems adequate but the instability is still a question mark. There are no slight risk areas as of this writing.

Rainfall should amount to about an inch or so for Central Alabama in this round. January certainly has been dry so far so the rain will be welcome.

Looking ahead the overall pattern remains fast. It appears that the northern branch becomes more active through the end of January, but the GFS is painting a short wave in the southern stream around the end of the month for a potential rain event.

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I hope you have a good Saturday. Anything that needs doing outdoors in dry weather should be done this morning or very early afternoon. Otherwise, keep the umbrella handy if you are headed out this evening. The next Weather Xtreme Video should be posted by 8 am tomorrow. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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