Warmer Days Ahead…

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COLD AGAIN TONIGHT: Most spots will drop into the 20 to 25 degree range at daybreak tomorrow, with teens likely for the colder valleys. Here is a statement from the NWS Birmingham on the historic perspective of the cold wave:

SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WERE IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA…ALTHOUGH MOST SPOTS STILL DROPPED BELOW 25
DEGREES. THERE WERE A FEW EXCEPTIONS TO THIS…WITH THE MAIN ONE
BEING THE BIRMINGHAM AIRPORT. THE LOW THIS MORNING WAS 25 DEGREES
AND PUTS THE DAILY SUB-25 DEGREE STREAK IN JEOPARDY OF CONTINUING TO
RECORD LEVELS. THE ONLY WAY THE STREAK WILL CONTINUE IS IF THE
TEMPERATURE CAN DROP BELOW 25 DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AT
THIS POINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS
OVERNIGHT…AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE BIRMINGHAM AIRPORT WOULD
BE ABLE TO DROP TO 24 DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING…EITHER THE STREAK WILL BE OVER OR THE OFFICIAL TOTAL OF
DAYS FOR BIRMINGHAM WILL BE RAISED BY TWO.

WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BROKEN DURING THIS COLD
SNAP…THE DURATION AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN
HISTORIC.

THE DAYS AHEAD: The good news is that a nice warming trend begins tomorrow afternoon, that will last through Friday. We are getting some huge spreads on MOS numbers coming from the GFS and the NAM; we will take a blended approach. Look for a high around 50 tomorrow, followed by mid 50s Thursday, and upper 50s Friday. Some West Alabama communities should reach 60 for the first time this year Friday afternoon. Sure sounds great after the long Arctic siege we have been dealing with.

THE WEEKEND: Saturday still looks wet; see the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the ECMWF is more aggressive and farther north with the low in the Gulf, and probably the best solution. We will forecast occasional rain Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, with potential for 1/2 to 1 inch of rain for the North-Central part of Alabama. The southern counties of the state could go over two inches, with some potential for a few thunderstorms to be involved as well.

The rain will end late Saturday night, and Sunday should feature morning clouds giving way to some afternoon sunshine as drier air begins working back into the state. No cold air involved this time, so the high Sunday should be in the low 50s.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Dry weather is likely for the first half of next week with highs in the 50s; the GFS hints that rain will return toward the latter half of the week. Still no sign of any Arctic blast through the rest of January, although it seems like much colder air will slip down into the northern U.S. late in the month, and could be poised to move into the Deep South as February begins. We have to wonder if February will make us shiver…

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I enjoyed stops today at Greystone, Mount Laurel, and Trace Crossings Elementary Schools. Be looking for the 3rd graders from Greystone on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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