Dangerous Cold Wave; Snow By Thursday

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HOUSEKEEPING NOTE: Sorry we had to put the blog in high traffic mode earlier today, but that was the only way to open up the flow to the masses. In high traffic mode, no comments can be made and other functions are restricted. Things should be back to normal now… we always have extremely high traffic during cold/snow events, but add in the readers coming from the sports talk shows and it looks like we might crack a new record for page views today. We welcome everybody.

RIGHT NOW: Birmingham is at 27 degrees at 2:00 with a wind chill index of 16. Most of the MOS products (model output statistics) had projected temperatures in the mid to upper 30s right now, yet another reminder of how you might reject those numbers when putting a forecast in a true Arctic airmass. Even if the sun was sunshine brightly I am not sure we could be above freezing. A word of warning; most of those “enter your zip code” forecasts on the web are based on MOS products, so they won’t be of much use to you.

TONIGHT: The GFS is throwing out 16 degrees for Birmingham as our low late tonight and early tomorrow, which actually sounds about right. I don’t think the wind will go calm, but the colder spots will be in the 10 to 15 degree range.

TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY: These days will be cold and dry with a decent amount of sunshine. Highs in the 30s, lows in the teens. That 44 degree high you see coming from the GFS on Thursday is rather laughable.

SNOW DAY THURSDAY: Still looks like an excellent chance of snow in Alabama Thursday. The big question, of course, remains how much. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for the full details; the 12Z GFS/NAM are a little wetter, and the ECMWF and GEM remain steady. I will have a specific snow accumulation map early tomorrow morning; looks like 1 to 2 inches will be possible over the northern half of the state. I have to wonder if the heaviest snow in Alabama will come south of Montgomery (see the video). Remember, the ground and infrastructure are very cold, and there more than likely will be some difficulty in travel by Thursday afternoon or Thursday night.

WHEN? Looks like the best chance of snow will come in the 9:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. time frame Thursday.

EVEN COLDER: Following the snow on Thursday, the coldest air of the season blows in here Friday and Saturday. We will have a hard time getting to 20 on Friday, and we will stick with a morning low of 9 degrees for now for Saturday morning. If there is a snow cover, we will need to revise that down toward 5 degrees, with zero possible for the colder valleys. This is dangerously cold weather down here in the Deep South, and again we strongly encourage you to check on any elderly person you might know that has a questionable heating source. And, be very careful with space heaters or anything else that might start a house fire.

The weekend stays very cold and dry; we should be close to 10 degrees at daybreak Sunday. The GFS is printing a high of 23 Saturday, I somehow doubt we see 20 degrees (much like Friday).

NEXT WEEK AND INTO VOODOO LAND: We should finally climb into the 40s Monday as a moderating trend begins. But, the AO remains strongly negative and more Arctic air is likely by the time we get to mid month. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.

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We will keep the blog updated with fresh information… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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