Changes at the National Hurricane Center

According to Bill Read, the Director of the National Hurricane center, change will continue to be the watch word as we head into the future when it comes to the Center and its products. Rapid advances in graphics and web products means that you will see a lot of new things this year. One thing will be audio podcasts about storms. They Center was ready with this for 2009, but there just weren’t enough storms to really test out the idea.

One big thing you will notice is a redefinition of each category in the Saffir Simpson scale. The storm surge has been detached from the wind scale. There is just way too much variability in storm size and coastal shape. The meteorologists have been working on these changes with engineers and you can expect to see the changes in 2010.

Another really big thing is watches and warnings will be issued earlier this year. Now, hurricane watches are issued up to 36 hours in advance of when hurricane conditions are expected along a coastal section. Hurricane warnings have been issued 24 hours in advance of when hurricane conditions are expected. In 2010, hurricane watches will be issued up to 48 hours in advance and hurricane warnings up to 36 hours in advance. The amount of advance notice will vary based on track confidence. Improved track forecasting has made this possible. This will give emergency managers and the public precious additional time to prepare and evacuate.

This year, you will see storm surge watches and warnings. They will be issued when probabilities of getting storm surge of 5 feet or greater reached certain thresholds. These advices will separate surge forecasts from wind to aid in events like Hurricane Ike where surge covers a much larger area than wind warnings. It will also allow forecasters to more accurately specify severity of surge threat by decoupling from wind warning

Another thing will be that one Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watch/Warning will be issued which covers inland, coastal, marine areas. It will be coordinated between National Weather Service Forecast Offices and the National Hurricane Center, in a way that is similar to how severe thunderstorm and tornado watches are coordinated with the Storm Prediction Center now.

You will also see restructured text products. Advisories will be reformatted for the first time in decades. They will contain the same information, but it will be easier to see the information that might be important to you. You can see the changes and comment on them on the NHC website.

Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter. I am wxhistorian at Twiiter.com.

Category: Uncategorized