Prepare for a Long Chill

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As I’ve been billing for several days now, it looks like Central Alabama is in for a long chill. But first, a quick comment on yesterday’s forecast – at least my forecast. I was forecasting a high around 50 to 51 and we got to 49 at the Birmingham Shuttlesworth International Airport. So the forecast was really not bad. But I did underestimate the effects of evaporative cooling. If you watch the video, you will see the temperature trace from my station which clearly shows that effect.

Today will remain mostly cloudy with some fog as a result of cool air and the rain yesterday afternoon and overnight. By the way, most locations got around a quarter of an inch or so with somewhat higher amounts south of Clanton. Temperatures should climb into the lower 50s for highs today – enjoy those values because it may be a while before we see temperatures that warm for at least a week.

A strong short wave will move across the Southeast tonight and Friday, New Years Day, and will usher in cold air that will be sticking with us for the foreseeable future. As that short wave comes across the area, there will be clouds so there is a possibility of some snow flurries or patchy light snow showers. As the cold air invades Central Alabama on Friday, the atmosphere will be drying out, so there is little chance for rain in the forecast for the next week.

A deep closed low becomes anchored off the New England coast Monday and Tuesday. This allows a number of strong short waves to rotate around the closed low to help reinforce our cold air with a strong northwest to north flow pattern. Temperatures after today for both highs and lows are likely to be 10 to 15 degrees below values we typically see in early January – lows are around 32 and highs around 52.

Wednesday the closed low off New England finally moves out allowing a trough to deepen along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. This appears to be a fairly deep trough with a significant southern extent. The GFS is forecasting the development of another surface low in the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday which will move eastward quickly and strengthen. This suggests a winter weather threat for the Southeast US again. It’s too early to begin forecasting snow, but the conditions over the next 4 to 6 days would certainly support this kind of outcome. Something for us to watch and see how it evolves.

The trend in the long range is for cold weather to stick around through the middle of January. And that trend is clearly supported in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) projections.

Don’t forget to listen to our weekly netcast anytime on the web or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

As we bid a fond farewell to 2009, I hope that 2010 will bring you the kind of weather you like. There is one thing for sure, living in the Southeast US is great for weather enthusiasts because we get it all! I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am tomorrow. Godspeed.

-Brian-

For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate, detailed information on past storms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. Whether it is an insurance claim needing validation or a court case where weather was a factor, we can furnish you with information you need. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.

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