Extended Cold Ahead

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It’s not quite as cold this morning as previous days thanks to the blanket of clouds that came in overnight. But it certainly looks like we are going to feel the effects of winter as we enter 2010.

Today expected mostly clouds though a few spots could see a peek at the sun this morning. Rain will move into the area from the west and southwest this afternoon and evening with most places getting rain overnight. The rain will move out Thursday morning paving the way for a cloudy but mostly dry afternoon Thursday. Temperatures should reach highs in the lower 50s today and middle 50s Thursday.

As the short wave moves by Thursday our upper air flow will take on a distinctly northwesterly look which will open the way for cold air to advect into the Southeast. With a trough anchored generally along the East Coast of the US, short waves will rotate around the closed low located off the Northeast US helping to keep us cold with a series of reinforcing shots of cold air.

The question of snow still remains. Any snow that occurs is likely to come overnight Thursday and into Friday with whatever moisture comes with the short wave. So at least now it appears that a snow shower or some patchy light snow or snow flurries is about all we can expect. And what little snow there might be is like to be along and north of the I-20 corridor.

With those series of waves rotating around the closed low, we will stay cold through much of the first full week of 2010. There is a lot of discussion as to exactly how cold it will be. Dr. Coleman had an excellent discussion yesterday on this. The large snow field to the northwest of us will certainly help to keep whatever flow comes our way cold. The latest GFS is not painting the closed low off the Northeast US coast quite as strong, but I believe we are going to see lows get into the teens with highs Sunday and Monday struggling to reach above the 30s.

No organized severe weather is anticipated over the next several days. Rainfall amounts are likely to stay around a half inch or less based on the rather quick translation of the surface low.

Note to sky watchers for today – be watchful for virga. The atmosphere is rather dry aloft so rain will have to fall from the clouds to moisten the air before we begin to see measurable rain at the ground. You may see radar echoes over a spot before actual rain reaches the ground.

Voodoo country remains active. The GFS is suggesting a slight northward pull of the main westerlies, but I’m not ready to buy into that just yet. The idea of a continuation of an active pattern seems good.

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Whatever outside activities you need to do should be done early today. By late afternoon I think we’ll begin to see some light rain. Whatever the weather, enjoy the day. The next Weather Xtreme Video should be posted by 8 am or so Thursday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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