Christmas Eve Storms, Then Cold

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RIGHT NOW: What a fantastic day for the first official day of winter. Sunny with mid 50s across the state. A gentle breeze and low humidity. Simply superb.

After another clear and cold night tonight (most places will be around freezing at daybreak tomorrow), we will forecast another dry and pleasant day tomorrow with a high around the 60 degree mark.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Clouds return Wednesday as moist air flows in from the Gulf of Mexico, but the bulk of the rain should remain west of the state, over Louisiana, Arkansas, and parts of Mississippi where SPC maintains a slight risk of severe storms ahead of the long awaited pre-Christmas storm. To the north, big snows will increase Wednesday in the general area from the Texas Panhandle and West Oklahoma through Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota. Winter storm watches are up for this region. I get the idea this thing will be full blown blizzard for much of the nation’s bread-basket, giving them a Christmas snow that will be talked about for years to come.

The 12Z model sets continue to trend slower, and it looks like it might be Thursday night before the main band of showers and storms pushes into Alabama. The surface low will be somewhere between Kansas City and Des Moines, well under 1000 mb, and there will be ample low level helicity around here for sustained updrafts and strong storms. However, there is very little surface based instability with weak lapse rates(see the Weather Xtreme video), and that is the big limiting factor for a severe weather problem here. Don’t forget the wedge could some into play as well, with cooler and more stabler air over East Alabama.

Let’s hope those CAPE values remain low and we won’t have to work a severe weather outbreak Christmas Eve; that is not much fun. Rain amounts of around 1 inch seem likely, with the main window for rain and stronger storms from 6:00 p.m. Thursday through 6:00 a.m. Friday.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Rain ends during the very early morning hours, with a cloudy and colder day for Alabama with temperatures falling from the 50s, through the 40s as air flows over the big snow pack to the north and down into our state.

The post-Christmas weekend looks cold and dry; not sure we see much sun with highs only in the 40 to 45 degree range, and some risk of flurries with a very strong vort max progged to move through on Sunday. Any secondary low development on the Atlantic coast will have to be watched, but for now anything associated with it looks like it will stay northeast of Alabama.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Looks like we get back on the more typical El Nino storm track for the last week of the year, and into early January, with Gulf lows showing up around the middle of next week, and over New Year’s weekend. Both of these have some potential for winter weather mischief across the Deep South, so keep an eye on them. Remember, we are still dealing with an El Nino winter with a strongly negative AO/NAO for now. We rarely get away with no winter weather threats when these are together. That is why is surprising that this week’s storm will take the northern track. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Just out from Bill Murray that we are swapping guests for the next two weeks, so Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather will be on the show tonight, and Dr. Joe Schaeffer from SPC will be on next week’s episode. Tonight’s new show will be posted by 11:00 p.m. CST.

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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