Warm Up Today

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After a very cold day yesterday, we should see a nice warmup today – on the order of about 10 degrees – as the surface high slides further east bringing the surface flow around to the southeast and south. Looks for highs to reach the lower 50s for most locations.

Southwesterly flow aloft bringing some moisture to the atmosphere means we have to mention the possibility of a few showers Monday. I think the showers will be few so most of us will stay dry. However, the big event in our future comes on Tuesday and into early Wednesday. The trough to our west will send a strong short wave across the Central US which develops a surface low in the southern Rockies. As the surface moves east and then northeast, the Southeast US will see a warm front move northward from the Gulf. This could potentially set the stage for a significant severe weather episode primarily Tuesday afternoon and evening for Mississippi and Alabama. This far out there are still a number of ifs, so we will be watching closely as this system evolves. I hope you’ll all stay abreast of the latest information via the Blog.

The SPC has nearly all of Alabama and Mississippi in a slight risk area for Day 3. Rainfall amounts with the main system are likely to come in around 1 to 2 inches. This will add to the rainfall total for December and could help us to reach nearly 70 percent of our monthly average rainfall.

That system moves out Wednesday – and Wednesday is likely to be one of those blustery, chilly days where the temperatures actually fall during the day. I expect the temperatures to be falling through the 50s and those will feel cold with a good northwest wind.

The real cold air stays to our north but does keep us chilly for the end of the week and into the weekend. A somewhat zonal to southwest flow means some shower chances Friday and Saturday with weather improving and drying out by Sunday.

Looking further afield, the GFS has shifted substantially in the long range. This run is developing a deep long wave trough over the eastern and central US. If this happens, it will mean sharply colder weather just prior to Christmas – around the 19th and 20th. We all know how this can change in the next model run, but it will be worth watching to see if this colder trend continues.

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I had a great time at the Helena Christmas Parade yesterday. My small town puts on a great parade, which, by the way, will celebrate its 40th year in 2010. Special thanks to Mayor Sonny Penhale and Parade Chair Joy Childers for letting me help out with the announcing duties. And a very special thanks to Bo Bice who was our Grand Marshall this year. Enjoy the day with the warmer temperatures and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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