Cloudy Day Here

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The bulk of the rain with the surface low along the Gulf Coast has moved through Central Alabama at this writing, but clouds and patchy light rain will continue today along with nearly steady temperatures in the lower and middle 50s. The surface low along with the upper air reflection will continue to move steadily east-northeast exiting our area but I expect the clouds to hang in there on Monday behind the system. I do not expect to see any significant rain, but with the clouds some light drizzle is always possible.

While the current system exits the next system is getting set. A closed low over Kansas City will move into the eastern Great Lakes region as a very strong and strengthening short wave moves into the trough. This will create a bit of a dumbbell pattern as the closed low rotates across the eastern Great Lakes while the short wave coming out of Canada digs into the Central US. This digging short wave is forecast to become very sharp, so I expect to see some much colder weather for Thanksgiving.

Right now it appears, as the GFS suggested yesterday, that this system will have very little moisture to work with. The results will be some clouds and perhaps a brief shot at some light rain. But for now, I am going to keep my forecast dry.

This deep trough moves through very quickly as the overall weather pattern remains quite progressive. This means that the cold air is only here about 36 hours before we see a warming trend take over. But for Thanksgiving we could very well have a day with temperatures holding in the 40s. By Saturday, however, we should see highs approaching the 60-degree mark.

No areas for a slight risk of severe weather have been identified by SPC, and the tropical Atlantic remains quiet as we head into the last week of the 2009 hurricane season.

A quick peek into voodoo country shows another wet system for us around the 3rd of December and then at the end of the forecast cycle the GFS is opening the way for great speculation with what could be a very exciting storm system with severe weather potential for the Southeast as well as winter weather for the Central US. But that’s way out there, so we’ll watch the trends and see how that system evolves with time.

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James Spann will have the next Weather Xtreme Video first thing Monday morning. Happy Thanksgiving a bit early. I hope that you have a wonderful week and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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