Great Weather for the Weekend

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Forecast looks great for the weekend and early next week, but my confidence in the rest of the week is not too good. High pressure along with an upper ridge will keep us in great shape through the weekend and early next week, but starting Tuesday the overall weather pattern becomes a bit iffier. The upper flow pattern will bring us passing cirrus clouds out of the southwest which could bring some great sun dog viewing just prior to sunset, so get those cameras ready. The appearance of sun dogs on either side of the sun will depend on how thick or dense the cirrus becomes.

The culprit in the lack of confidence is the strong short wave over the southern Rockies which is now projected to get close enough to bring a front into the area about Wednesday before it heads north. This would bring a small chance for showers to our area. The problem is that this reverses the trend of the GFS for the last several days of trending drier. At the moment, there is not a strong reason to object to the GFS solution. The good news is that there is no sign of any dramatic temperature change with highs staying in the 70s for the next several days and dropping only into the 60s later in the week with more clouds.

The other good news is that this solution brings us another great weekend next weekend. The big problem is that this solution does involve a strong southwesterly flow which can often be wetter than the model is indicating. So with confidence not riding very high from mid week into late week, we’ll have to watch carefully on how the model shapes up.

After a string of these short waves, we see a fairly strong short wave out in voodoo that promises some wet weather for the end of November. But that is a long way out and there is plenty of time for that to change.

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Hope to see you at the BJCC for our annual storm spotter event, Storm Alert Xtreme. I’ve got to rush off and get ready for that. The next Weather Xtreme Video should be here by 7:30 or 8:00 am on Sunday. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate, detailed information on past storms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. Whether it is an insurance claim needing validation or a court case where weather was a factor, we can furnish you with information you need. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.

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