Good Soaking Ahead

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THIS MORNING: No rain across our state this morning, but the weather is very wet to the west, where flash flood watches are up from Texas to Mississippi. A few showers could ease into West Alabama this afternoon, but the daytime will be generally dry despite the clouds, and temperatures should reach the low to mid 70s this afternoon.

The rain will move into Alabama tonight, and periods of rain and thunderstorms are likely through the day tomorrow. This system features some tropical moisture from former Hurricane Rick, so the computer models, most likely, will underestimate the amount of rain. We are still projecting rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches statewide, with potential for more in isolated spots. The main window for rain will be from about 7:00 tonight through 9:00 tomorrow night. It won’t rain during that entire time, of course, but it could rain at any time, and the rain could be heavy at times.

SPC has low end severe weather probabilities tomorrow for the southern quarter of the state; there is very little surface based instability up this way, so a significant severe weather problem is not anticipated. But, you know the deal, with thunderstorms, expect the unexpected. We will be watching the radar closely.

THE WEEKEND: Now the models are coming in stronger with the upper trough on Saturday, which means clouds much of the day along with temperatures in the 50s. I tried to be more optimistic in the public forecast this morning, forecasting the sky to become partly sunny with a high in the low 60s. Probably a mistake; gut feeling says clouds hang tough most of the day Saturday. Sunday should be sunny with a high in the 67 to 70 degree range.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: There is a chance the rain will begin tonight after the Thursday night high school football games are finished, and the rain will end tomorrow night before the Friday night games begin. But, there is no guarantee, and I would still take the rain gear to high school football games (whether you attend one tonight or tomorrow night). Remember, we are expecting rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches tomorrow, so the fields will be pretty sloppy tomorrow night.

Saturday, Alabama will host the Tennessee Volunteers for a 2:30 kickoff at Bryant-Denny Stadium… we expect a partly sunny sky with a kickoff temperature near 61 degrees, falling into the 50s by the fourth quarter. Auburn plays LSU at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge Saturday night (6:30 p.m. kickoff)… the sky will be clear with a kickoff temperature near 68 degrees, falling into the low 60s by the final whistle. UAB will play at Marshall in Huntington, West Virginia Saturday (11:00 a.m. kickoff); rain is likely during the game, along with the possibility of a thunderstorm. The kickoff temperature will be close to 58, rising into the low 60s during the game.

NEXT WEEK: An upper trough could kick off a shower or two late Monday or Monday night, but moisture will be very limited and rain should be light and spotty. Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry with mild afternoons.

A major storm system will impact Alabama toward the end of next week; watch the Weather Xtreme video for a day by day breakout of the event; the 00Z GFS hints that Thursday will be the big rain day with potential for heavy rain and/or severe thunderstorms. The rain should be gone in time for the Halloween weekend.

STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 14 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years). We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

This morning I am back down in the Tuscaloosa area for a weather program at Cottondale Elementary School… I will have the afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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