Ch Ch Ch Changes

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Anyone remember the song by David Bowie?

“Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
(turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-changes
Dont want to be a richer man
Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
(turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-changes
Just gonna have to be a different man
Time may change me
But I cant trace time”

A very wet pattern is setting up for Alabama during the next few days as a strong upper trough approaches, and tropical moisture from Rick gets involved. Clouds will increase tonight and tomorrow, and rain should move into West Alabama by late afternoon. Periods of rain and occasional thunderstorms are then likely statewide tomorrow night and Friday, and we are still projecting one to two inches of rain, with potential for locally heavier amounts. Severe weather is not expected to be a problem with marginal instability values, but the rain could be heavy at times. The rain will end from west to east by late Friday night.

OUR WEEKEND: The 12Z GFS doesn’t show the deep, phased upper trough over the east, so I think we can a little more optimistic with our Saturday forecast. The sky becomes partly sunny with a high in the low to mid 60s. Sunday looks like a dry and pleasant day with a partly to mostly sunny sky and a high close to 70, maybe low 70s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Rain is likely for high school football games tomorrow night over the western third of the state, but we can’t rule out a shower over the eastern half as well. Then, for the Friday night games, the rain will be ending during the games from west to east. There is a chance the rain will be over by the time the games kick off in West Alabama Friday night, but no guarantee. Don’t forget we are projecting one to two inches of rain during the day Friday, so the fields will be pretty sloppy one way or another. I would plan on taking rain gear both nights.

Saturday, Alabama will host the Tennessee Volunteers for a 2:30 kickoff at Bryant-Denny Stadium… we expect a partly sunny sky with a kickoff temperature near 63 degrees, falling into the upper 50s by the fourth quarter. Auburn plays LSU at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge Saturday night (6:30 p.m. kickoff)… the sky will be clear with a kickoff temperature near 68 degrees, falling into the low 60s by the final whistle. UAB will play at Marshall in Huntington, West Virginia Saturday (11:00 a.m. kickoff); rain is likely during the game, along with the possibility of a thunderstorm. The kickoff temperature will be close to 58, rising into the low 60s during the game.

NEXT WEEK: An upper trough will bring some clouds to Alabama Monday, but the low levels will be very dry, and it looks like any showers with that feature will be widely spaced. Tuesday and Wednesday look dry and mild, but the end of the week looks wet. We will highlight showers and storms Thursday and Friday, with potential for a few strong storms and heavy rain thanks to an approaching strong cold front. At this early stage of the game Halloween looks cold and blustery with rain ending early in the day. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for a day by day breakdown of weather next week and Halloween weekend.

STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 14 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years). We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

I had a great time today visiting with the kids at Skyland Elementary in Tuscaloosa… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here bright and early by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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