Flash Flood Watch… Again

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MORE RAIN: The leading edge of the next batch of rain to impact Alabama has moved into the northwest corner of the state; that rain extends all the way back to the Dallas/Fort Worth area. Ahead of this, the NWS has re-issued the flash flood watch for North-Central Alabama through tomorrow. Additional rain amounts of 2 to 3 inches seem likely, with the best potential for the heaviest rain from about 12:00 midnight tonight through 12:00 noon tomorrow. The NAM is actually printing 3.76″ of rain for Birmingham, and it has done a very good job with recent events. The GFS is at 2.46″, so you can clearly see why the flash flood watch is in effect. If you live in a flood-prone area, be aware that warnings could be needed late tonight or tomorrow morning.

The air will be relatively stable, so at least severe thunderstorms should not be a problem, although we could see some thunder and lightning at times. The rain will taper off tomorrow afternoon as a surface wave on our stalled front south of here moves on to the east.

THURSDAY: Early in the week, it looked like we might have some risk of severe weather, but thankfully that threat has faded away. A short wave will bring the risk of some light rain, or a few showers, but nothing especially heavy.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The coolest air so far this season blows in here as a sharp upper trough develops over the eastern U.S. Friday will be a raw day, with a cloudy sky, a brisk north wind, and temperatures holding in the 50s. We might see a little drizzle Friday morning, but the day will be generally dry despite the lingering clouds.

Saturday could also be pretty raw. The GFS puts the 5400 meter thickness line below Birmingham Saturday (1000 to 500 mb thickness), and I am not totally convinced we clear out all the quickly. If clouds linger, temperatures over the northern third of the state could be in the 40s all day; we will struggle to reach the low to mid 50s here in the Birmingham metro area. Brisk northerly winds will make it feel colder. But, the day will be dry, and the state should be clear by Saturday night.

Sunday morning will feature a low near 40 degrees, but the latest GFS keeps the wind blowing, which should reduce the chance of the valleys getting into the 30s with some frost. However, it does look nearly calm at daybreak Monday, so some scattered light frost seems possible at daybreak Monday across the colder valleys of North Alabama. Sunday and Monday will be sunny; the high Sunday will be in the 60s, with low 70s likely Monday as a warming trend begins.

NEXT WEEK: Tuesday looks dry, but showers and storms are likely by Wednesday night and Thursday with another storm system approaching from the west.

STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 14 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years). We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

I had a great time today seeing all of the kids at Aliceville Elementary in Pickens County; be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

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