Next Wave Of Rain Arrives Tonight

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MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY: We begin this day with low clouds and fog; looks like any showers during the day today will be fairly widely scattered, but the clouds will hang tough. Temperatures should reach the mid 70s in most places. Rain will increase west of the state tonight, and that moves in here tonight. Looks like we can expect 1 to 2 inches of rain from midnight tonight through noon tomorrow, and more flooding problems are very possible. While a few thunderstorms could be involved, severe storms are not expected. The rain should taper off tomorrow afternoon as a developing wave of low pressure on our stalled front moves on to the east.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Yet another batch of rain and storms is due in here Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, and rain amounts of 1 inch are likely with this one. The good news is that we never really get into the warm sector, and the threat of severe weather looks minimal for the northern half of the state. SPC defines a slight risk of severe weather Thursday and Thursday night along the Gulf Coast all the way from Louisiana east to Tampa Bay; this includes Mobile and Baldwin Counties in Alabama, and the Florida panhandle. Our main concern will be additional flash flooding around here.

The rain should end late Thursday night, and Friday will be a rather raw day, with low clouds, sharply cooler temperatures, and an increasing north breeze. We will stay in the 50s all day, and with the lack of sunshine it will feel even cooler. You will need a jacket if you will be outdoors. Some lingering light rain or drizzle is possible Friday morning, but the day will be generally dry.

THE WEEKEND: A deep upper trough forms over the eastern states Saturday. I am not totally convinced we will see much sunshine Saturday, although our ongoing forecast calls for clearing. It will be a breezy and very cool day with temperatures struggling to get above the mid 50s (if we see no sunshine). Some light rain or drizzle could be found over the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama, but the day should be dry down here. We should clear Saturday night, and Sunday morning will be the coolest of the season so far. The GFS is printing 43 for Birmingham; we are forecasting a low of 40. If the winds can go calm, we will see some 30s across the colder valleys with potential for scattered light frost. The day will be sunny with a high in the 60s.

NEXT WEEK: Monday morning could be just as cool as Sunday morning for some places, but we begin a warming trend Monday afternoon with a high in the 70s. Monday and Tuesday should be dry, but moisture will increase at mid-week and a few showers could show up by Wednesday.

STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 14 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years). We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Scroll down for the notes on this week’s new show. Great to have radio legend Don Keith on with us…

Today I will driving over to Pickens County to see the kids at Aliceville Elementary… I should be back in the office by early afternoon and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!

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